Trump Policy 2.0: Implications For Fiscal And Monetary Stability And The Resilience Of The Islamic Financial Sector In Indonesia
Keywords:
Trump 2.0; Fiscal Stability; Monetary Stability; Islamic Financial Stability
Abstract
The protectionist policies implemented by the United States under Donald Trump, particularly through impor tariffs on trading partners, including Indonesia, have created uncertainty in global trade. These tariff increases will disrupt the economic stability of partner countries, including Indonesia. The impact can be reflected in fiscal stability, monetary stability, and the resilience of the financial sector, particularly Islamic finance. Therefore, this study aims to analyze how US tariff policy impacts these three pillars of economic stability using VAR and VECM methods. Data used ranges from 2016 to 2025. Overall, the VAR model estimation results indicate that all variables have a long-term relationship. Therefore, the VECM model, measured by the error correction term (ECT), estimates the impact of Trump's import tariffs on fiscal, monetary, and Islamic financial stability indicators. The variables with significant effects are state budget deficit, government debt, rupiah exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves, Indonesia Sharia Stock Index (ISSI), and Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR). Meanwhile, the variables with insignificant effects are state revenue, inflation, and Non Performing Financing (NPF). Furthermore, in the short term, the variables with significant effects are all fiscal stability variables (state revenue, state budget deficit, government debt), and Islamic financial stability (ISSI and FDR). The variables with insignificant effects are monetary stability variables (rupiah exchange rate, inflation, foreign exchange reserves) and Islamic financial stability (NPF).References
REFERENCES
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[34] A. Rao, B. Lucey, and S. Kumar, “Financial Market Reactions to U.S. Tariff Announcements : Evidence from Trade-Surplus and Trade-Deficit Countries,” Financ. Res. Lett., vol. 81, no. February, p. 107465, 2025, doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107465.
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[1] S. Ekasari, M. K. Bin, and H. Othman, “GLOBAL ECONOMIC POLICY IN AN ERA OF UNCERTAINTY,” Int. J. Econ. Lit., vol. 3, no. 5, pp. 388–395, 2025.
[2] Z. Zhanaltay and A. Amirbek, “Donald Trump’s Second Term: ONALD TRUMP’S SECOND TERM: Early Policy Signals, Economic Nationalism, and Global Trade Implications for Kazakhstan,” Eurasian Res. J., vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 134–153, Apr. 2025, doi: 10.53277/2519-2442-2025.2-02.
[3] B. P. Statistik, “Berita Resmi Statistik,” 2025.
[4] Y. Meng, Y. Lin, and L. Hong, “The impact of trade protectionism on export enterprises: Inferences from the China-U.S. trade war,” Financ. Res. Lett., vol. 81, Jul. 2025, doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107493.
[5] Global Macro Research, “What is the impact of Trump 2.0 on the global economy?,” 2024.
[6] N. Luh et al., “Trump’s Protectionism Threatens Indonesian Exports: Predicting the Impact on National Economic Resilience,” 2024. [Online]. Available: http://ijsoc.goacademica.com
[7] Z. Mrabet, M. Alsamara, K. Mimouni, and A. Awwad, “Do supply chain pressures affect consumer prices in major economies? New evidence from time-varying causality analysis,” Econ. Model. , vol. 142, 2025.
[8] M. Hodula, J. Janků, S. Malovaná, and N. A. Ngo, “Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact on Global Macro-Financial Stability: Literature and Measurements,” 2024. [Online]. Available: www.cnb.cz
[9] D. A. Karimah, M. B. Pamuncak, and M. K. Mubin, “The Role of Waqf in Supporting Sustainable Development Goals: Linking theory and its practices,” SUHUF, vol. 35, no. 2, pp. 31–38, Nov. 2023, doi: 10.23917/suhuf.v35i2.23018.
[10] X. Wang, X. Wang, Z. Zhong, and J. Yao, “The impact of US–China trade war on Chinese firms: Evidence from stock market reactions,” Appl. Econ. Lett., vol. 28, no. 7, pp. 579–583, 2021, doi: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1764477.
[11] D. M. S. Fisardi, A. F. Umtami, and F. L. Nisa, “Pengaruh Ekspor dan Impor terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia,” vol. 10, no. 19, pp. 233–249, 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14046045.
[12] D. A. Steinberg and Y. Tan, “Public responses to foreign protectionism: Evidence from the US-China trade war,” Rev. Int. Organ. Springer, vol. 18, pp. 145–167, Jan. 2023.
[13] P. Fajgelbaum, P. Goldberg, P. Kennedy, A. Khandelwal, and D. Taglioni, “The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations,” Am. Econ. Rev. Insights, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 295–312, 2024, doi: DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20230094.
[14] C. P. Bown and H. L. Kee, “Developing Countries, New Trade Barriers, and the Global Economic Crisis,” in World Bank, The World Bank, 2011, pp. 63–83. doi: 10.1596/9780821386316_ch06.
[15] F. Benguria, J. Choi, D. Swenson, and M. (Jimmy) Xu, “Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war,” J. Int. Econ., 2022.
[16] Global Outlook, “Global Outlook,” 2025.
[17] J. Boussard, C. Castrovillari, T. Mineyama, M. Spinella, B. Tabti, and M. Tuuli, “Global Shocks Unfolding: Lessons from Fragile and Conflict-affected States, WP/24/214, October 2024,” 2024.
[18] E. Sakar, M. U. Sasmaz, and A. Ozen, “The Nexus Between Tax Revenue, Economic Policy Uncertainty, and Economic Growth: Evidence from G7 Economies,” Sustainability, vol. 17, no. 15, p. 6780, Jul. 2025, doi: 10.3390/su17156780.
[19] M. R. Nursawitri et al., “Efektivitas Kebijakan Fiskal terhadap Permintaan Agregat dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia: Studi Literatur 2020-2024,” J. Innov. Creat., vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 146–158, 2025.
[20] D. N. Putri, C. M. Manurung, A. Putri, D. Alnaya, and D. Sanggam, “Analisis Kebijakan Moneter dalam Mengatasi Krisis Ekonomi Global,” MANTAP J. Manag. Accounting, Tax Prod., no. 1, Mar. 2025.
[21] K. Kohler, B. Bonizzi, and A. Kaltenbrunner, “Global financial uncertainty shocks and external monetary vulnerability: The role of dominance, exposure, and history,” Financ. Mark. Institutions Money, vol. 88, Oct. 2023.
[22] H. Ardian and A. Putra, “The Impact of Global Uncertainty on Indonesia’s Economic Stability: An Empirical Study for the Period 2020-2025,” Nomico J., vol. 1, no. 2, 2024, doi: 10.62872/2p3y1352.
[23] A. T. P. Marasanti and K. Verico, “The Effect of Uncertainty on Inflation: Evidence in ASEAN,” J. Dev. Econ., vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 143–157, Jun. 2024, doi: 10.20473/jde.v9i1.48745.
[24] J. H. V. Purba, M. Mulyana, and W. I. Satria, “Analyzing the Impact of Import Tariffs, Trade Dynamics, and Exchange Rates on Economic Growth in Indonesia,” J. Ilm. Manaj. Kesatuan, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 1215–1226, 2025, doi: 10.37641/jimkes.v13i2.3005.
[25] T. T. K. Oanh, L. T. T. Van, and L. Q. Dinh, “Relationship between financial inclusion, monetary policy and financial stability: An analysis in high financial development and low financial development countries,” Heliyon, vol. 9, no. 6, Jun. 2023, doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16647.
[26] N. Nofrianto, D. P. Nugraha, A. M. Ahmed, Z. Muttaqin, M. Fekete-Farkas, and I. Hágen, “Exploring the Resilience of Islamic Stock in Indonesia and Asian Markets,” J. Risk Financ. Manag., vol. 17, no. 6, Jun. 2024, doi: 10.3390/jrfm17060239.
[27] J. Setiawan and A. Satrianto, “Analisis Harga Saham Syariah di Indonesia: Ketidakpastian Kebijakan, Harga Minyak Dunia dan Harga Emas,” J. Ilm. Ekon. dan Pembang., vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 24–37, 2020, [Online]. Available: http://ejournal.unp.ac.id/index.php/ekosains
[28] D. H. B. Phan, V. T. Tran, and B. N. Iyke, “Geopolitical risk and bank stability,” Financ. Res. Lett., vol. 46, May 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102453.
[29] Zainuri and S. Bawono, “The Impact of Non- Performing Loans and Economic Shock on The Stability of Islamic Banking Performance as Moderating in The Covid-19 Pandemic Era,” Media Bisnis, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 1–8, Mar. 2022, [Online]. Available: http://jurnaltsm.id/index.php/MB
[30] H. Banna, A. Alam, A. W. Alam, and X. H. Chen, “Geopolitical Uncertainty and Banking Risk: International Evidence,” SSRN Electron. J., 2023, [Online]. Available: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4325966
[31] O. Ozcelebi, “Determinants of Construction Sector Activity in Turkey: A Vector Autoregression Approach,” Int. J. Econ. Financ., vol. 3, no. 5, pp. 130–139, 2011, doi: 10.5539/ijef.v3n5p130.
[32] M. Hasanah, M. U. Al-Mustofa, and S. Herianingrum, “An Empirical Analysis Macroeconomics On Islamic Mutual Funds In Indonesia,” 2020. [Online]. Available: https://finance.yahoo.com/
[33] D. R. Febrianti, M. A. Tiro, and S. Sudarmin, “Metode Vector Autoregressive (VAR) dalam Menganalisis Pengaruh Kurs Mata Uang Terhadap Ekspor Dan Impor Di Indonesia,” VARIANSI J. Stat. Its Appl. Teach. Res., vol. 3, no. 1, p. 23, 2021, doi: 10.35580/variansiunm14645.
[34] A. Rao, B. Lucey, and S. Kumar, “Financial Market Reactions to U.S. Tariff Announcements : Evidence from Trade-Surplus and Trade-Deficit Countries,” Financ. Res. Lett., vol. 81, no. February, p. 107465, 2025, doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107465.
[35] I. P. Pratama and I. Wanusmawatie, “Dampak Kebijakan Moneter dan Tarif Impor Amerika Serikat terhadap Stabilitas Ekonomi Indonesia : Pendekatan Proses Kebijakan Ekonomi dan Berfokus pada Negara dalam Perubahan Perdagangan Global di Era Proteksionisme Baru,” J. Pendidik. Tambusai, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 22361–22369, 2025.
[36] A. Munandar, “Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR) serta Implikasinya terhadap Return on Assets (ROA) DAN Net Operating Margin (NOM) pada Bank Umum Syariah Periode Januari 2014 - September 2021,” Ekon. Sharia J. Pemikir. dan Pengemb. Ekon. Syariah, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 105–116, 2022.
Published
2026-04-27
How to Cite
Kurnia Hakim, F., Hasanah, M., Imani, S., & Taufiq, M. (2026). Trump Policy 2.0: Implications For Fiscal And Monetary Stability And The Resilience Of The Islamic Financial Sector In Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Pelita Bangsa, 11(01), 137-151. https://doi.org/10.37366/jespb.v11i01.3201
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Articles
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